PredictionTest is an experimental psychological instrument designed to evaluate how individuals assess the probability of future events.
Unlike quizzes, games, or entertainment products, PredictionTest is intended as a serious cognitive assessment tool. Its goal is to explore how people interpret uncertainty, evaluate information, and form expectations about the real world.
PredictionTest evaluates predictive judgment. Participants will estimate the probability of real-world events. Over time, these expectations are compared with actual outcomes.
Many of the questions originate from prediction markets and public forecasting questions. However, the test itself is not a trading or gambling activity.
No money is involved. No bets are placed. The instrument simply examines how accurately individuals align their expectations with reality.
PredictionTest is not a betting platform, trading system, or speculative market tool.
Although prediction markets inspired some of the methodology, the project focuses on the psychological dimension of forecasting:
The core version of PredictionTest will always remain free and publicly accessible.
The test can be taken fully anonymously. No account creation is required, no personal information is requested, and the basic use of the test does not require an email address.
PredictionTest is designed with a privacy-first philosophy. The platform aims to minimize unnecessary tracking and data collection. The basic version of the test does not rely on cookies or personal identification.
Participants should be able to test their predictive judgment without building a profile, leaving a digital trail, or attaching their identity to their answers.
For users who prefer additional convenience—such as receiving their testcode or accessing extended assessment reports—an email address may optionally be provided. However, this is never required to use the core test.
Available languages at launch:
The core instrument will remain permanently free.
A paid tier will exist for users who want deeper analysis or specialized variants of the test. These may include:
The primary objective of PredictionTest is to estimate the predictive calibration of an informed individual.
The test is not targeted specifically at analysts, journalists, or professional forecasters. It is designed for any informed person who regularly forms expectations about future events.
The assessment report will include several analytical dimensions, including:
Results should not be interpreted as definitive psychological judgments. PredictionTest is intentionally designed as a dynamic and continuously improving instrument.
A special variant of the instrument will allow periodic testing.
Participants may repeat the test regularly (for example weekly). Each new session will incorporate past results and generate an evolving profile of predictive performance.
This approach aims to measure not only individual results but the stability and development of predictive judgment over time.
Modern public discourse contains an endless stream of predictions.
Very few of them are ever evaluated.
PredictionTest exists to explore a simple question:
How well do our expectations about the future actually match reality?
The instrument is currently in development and a limited beta phase will begin before the public launch this summer.
Traders, forecasters, researchers, beta testers, or anyone interested in the measurement of predictive ability are welcome to reach out.
If you would like early access to the test, are working on related ideas, or simply want to say "hello" contact us